Monday, December 14, 2015

Political Chess and the 2016 Election

“Chess is Life” - Bobby Fischer

Politics have long been seen as a game of chess. In keeping with that allegory, I believe there is a strategic game being orchestrated to ensure the election of a certain individual. Here I will outline my prediction for the 2016 presidential election. 

Disclaimer: I support none of these candidates so this is in no way an endorsement for any candidate.

Republican side: Currently, Trump is the GOP front runner. While many think his candidacy is a joke, he has a strategic purpose: he is being used to dissect the tea party conservatives from the mainstream party. In parallel, Ted Cruz is being pushed up in order for the religious vote to be dissected from the Trump supporters. This will separate the far-right fiscal conservatives from the far-right religious conservatives, which will lead to an implosion of what Reagan called the two of the three legs of the Republican Party, leading the more extreme sides of the party to be apathetic come primary time. This leaves a hole, which Jeb/Rubio's progressive stance can “capitalize” on (see what I did there?). Many major republican backers have already sided with Rubio, since there is too much negativity associated with the Bush name. Bush also comes across as inept, out-of-touch and un-electable in the general election. Don’t forget, however, Rubio is a Bush acolyte, so Rubio will still support the Bush-camp initiatives.

Republican nominee: Rubio
Democratic side: Bernie Sanders has captured the hearts and minds of the nation for his populist message of equal income distribution and a rejection of the establishment elite. Major entertainment stars have embraced him, and have made him the clear choice for the younger, progressive vote who are fed up with mainstream government, similar to Obama in ‘08. Unfortunately, the Clinton political machine is just too strong and too tied to the establishment to allow Sanders to gain the nomination. Hillary will eventually win the nomination, thus disenfranchising the populist vote and making them apathetic in the general election.

Democratic nominee: Clinton
General election: With the populist vote disenfranchised, the democratic vote will be severely apathetic in the general election. Despite a historic campaign by Hillary Clinton to become the first female president - the sexist, good ol' boy regions of the country will not allow a woman to become elected. Plus major women's rights political advocates such as Elizabeth Warren haven't endorsed Clinton. Add to this the tainted Clinton name, the Benghazi dirt on her hands, as well as the email scandal, and you have an un-electable nominee. Rubio, on the other hand, will carry two critical swing states, Florida and Ohio, with Ohio Governor Kasich as his VP. Rubio also has a number of intangibles that will only add to his presidential run, including a peculiar mix of youth and experience. As the youngest presidential candidate, Rubio also frequently mentions his seat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee as validation for his experience dealing with issues overseas. He has already created what he calls the “Rubio Doctrine,” (Something I highly disagree with BTW).

President: Rubio


I will once again state that I am completely against a Rubio presidency. He views war as a preemptive measure and wants to assert American muscle by sending more troops abroad. He is also a strong supporter of enforcing archaic drug war polices and is opposed to universal rights to marry for all American citizens. (Here’s a nice article that summarizes his views which I find off-putting)

Unfortunately, there is a strategic game of chess that is going to make his candidacy inevitable. The pawns have be placed, the knights have been defeated and this one is one move away from checkmate.